A new report from authoritative electrification analysts, BloombergNEF, says that electric vehicle (EV) sales are likely to accelerate at a rate greater than ever experienced before.
However, in its annual Electric Vehicle Outlook report, BloombergNEF says that Governments need to encourage adoption further if they wish to be net-zero on carbon emissions by 2050.
Achieving that goal would require decisive further policy action, the report says, from accelerating electric car adoption, expanding charging networks, pushing for battery recycling and new regulations on heavy trucks, as well as encouraging active modes of transport such as cycling and walking.
Should there be no Governmental market stimulus an Economic Transition Scenario – which assumes no additional policy measures – would see global sales of zero-emission cars rising from 4% market share in 2020 to 70% by 2040.
While EV adaptors such as China, the United States and European economies are well ahead of these numbers, lower levels of adoption in emerging economies reduces the global average, says the report. Zero-emission light commercial vehicles will grow from 1% today to 60% of market share over the same time period, and medium and heavy commercial vehicles to just over 30%, from almost zero now.
Colin McKerracher, Head Of The Advanced Transport Team at BloombergNEF, said:
“The growth of electric transport is an amazing success story to date, and the future of the EV market is bright. But there are still over 1.2 billion combustion cars on the road and the fleet turns over slowly. Reaching net zero by mid-century will require all hands on deck, particularly for trucks and other heavy commercial vehicles where the transition has barely started.”
The report concludes by saying that the window for achieving net-zero road transport emissions by 2050 was closing quickly. It says that an immediate increase in policy action was needed, while investments in public transit and active mobility were an important part of the solution mix, reducing the demand for vehicles and vehicle miles, while also delivering a public-health benefit.
At the municipal level, tighter regulations for vehicles entering urban areas would help make the economics of zero-emission vehicles more attractive, especially for commercial fleet operators.
Key findings and more information on the Electric Vehicle Outlook can be found at: https://about.bnef.com/electric-vehicle-outlook/.