When are the cars coming? That seems to be the overriding question facing the remarketing industry now passing the two-year mark on global pandemic disruptions.

The latest Industry View from AutoIMS continues to show an unusual environment with supply chain shortages amid strong backlogged demand for vehicles that sustain higher prices, said Joe Miller, vice president of client experience for AutoIMS. That has lead to unusual and unpredictable market trends that defy historical examples.

“It’s more a lack of a pattern now that noticing a new one,” Miller said.

The quarterly Industry View aggregates metrics from the AutoIMS database, which includes most of the commercial sales volume at 1,600 commercial consignor entities and 750 physical auctions in North America connected to AutoIMS.

Among the notable results is how vehicle sale prices compared against floor prices, Miller said. “It did soften a bit in Q4 but we’re curious to see where it goes from here. Volume is likely to increase later this year.”

Quarterly YOY Results

Among 4Q 2021 versus 4Q 2020 comparisons:

• The average vehicle sale price jumped to $16,351 from $13,399.

• The gross sales price as a percentage of floor price was 100.6% last quarter versus 98.8% in 4Q 2020.

• The average days from secured to sold fell to 25.1 from 28.3.

• Total auction fees deducted from proceeds at sale rose to $374.97 from $372.76.

• The average mileage on a sold vehicle increased to 90,345 from 79,760.

• The average damage estimate based the condition report at time of sale rose to $2,096.34 from $1,747.20.

• The final vehicle grade at time of sale dipped to 2.86 from 3.07.

Annual Overlook

Among key annual findings from the first year of AutoIMS data:

• The low volume trend continued through the year. Except for a glimmer of hope in April, volumes were >20% down compared to an already-depressed 2020.

• Supply and demand continues to depress off-lease auction sales despite record-level lease maturities. Further, the rental segment now buys more than they sell at auction.

• Average sale price remains high for the commercial segment, even though the vehicles are on average: lower grade, higher mileage, more damaged, and older model years.

Asking the Right Questions

If anything, the data fuels more questions that can inform business and buying decisions than discernible trends to act on:

• What’s likely next for the pandemic?

• When will semiconductors start flowing back to auto manufacturers?

• What innovations, regulations, or financial policy changes will change the playing field?

• How is the buyer experience evolving for dealers?

• When will depreciation normalize?