Work Truck Solutions released its second quarter 2024 Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis, highlighting numerous key industry trends.

Data from the commercial vehicle market reveals an unstoppable swing from the days of scarce inventory, with many of the corresponding ripples that come with increased availability.

The Q2 data for new and used vehicles highlights that inventory levels, pricing, and sales numbers mostly follow persistent trends. In contrast, the landscape of alternative fuels in the commercial vehicle market remains in flux.

Commercial Vehicle Inventory Continues Steady Increase

On-lot new inventory per dealer continued its upward trajectory, growing 9.7% quarter over quarter (QoQ) and a substantial 66.6% year-over-year (YoY). The growth was evenly distributed between medium-duty (51.8% of inventory) and light-duty (48.0% of inventory) vehicles.

Quarterly growth was seen early in the quarter. Work Truck Solutions indicates a need to closely monitor these numbers to see if a new trend is developing or an anomaly.

New Cab Chassis inventory continued to climb QoQ and YoY, while Cutaway Chassis inventory declined QoQ and YoY, and Stripped Chassis availability was erratic. However, movement among all three chassis types either dropped or remained flat and are sitting on the lot longer.

Hybrid and commercial EVs, although still comparatively small in overall inventory numbers, saw a significant 46.5% decrease in new stock QoQ, marking a 25.8% drop YoY.

Used inventory stabilized QoQ following several quarters of decline, though it remains 18.5% lower YoY.

New Commercial Vehicle Prices See Slight Increase

Prices for new and used work trucks continue to adjust, with slight increases in new vehicle prices and more significant decreases in used vehicle prices.

The Q2 data shows average prices for new commercial vehicles increased slightly by 0.6% QoQ and more substantially by 6.8% YoY, reaching a record $58,470.

New light-duty Battery Electric Vehicle (BEVs) pickup prices declined by 3.7% QoQ and 11.0% YoY.

In contrast to new commercial vehicles, average prices for used work trucks and vans experienced a 1.7% decrease QoQ and a more pronounced 6.1% decline YoY, averaging $33,804.

Commercial Vehicle Days to Turn Jumps From Q1

Average Days to Turn (DTT) for new vehicle inventory increased by 14.5% QoQ and 40% YoY. With the average reaching 119 days in Q2 2024, new vehicle DTT is the highest since Q4 2020.

Work Truck Solutions attributed this incline to increased inventory and interest rates.

In contrast, the average DTT for used vehicles remained stable QoQ and decreased 8.3% YoY, with an average of 55 days.

Sales per Dealer Continue to Decline

As indicated by the continued DTT increase, new vehicle movement, or sales per dealer, decreased by 4.8% QoQ and 7.3% YoY.

However, average sales increased for the first time since Q1 2023, showing 2.9% QoQ growth, though still down 17.6% YoY.

In the commercial van categories — new cargo, box, passenger, service-utility, upfitted-cargo — cargo and passenger continued a general upward trend in availability and movement. In contrast, the others continued with a general upward trend in on-lot inventory but a generally flat or declining sales trend.

Despite the decrease in new vehicle movement, new hybrid/electric commercial vehicles saw a significant increase of 35.0% QoQ and 28.6% YoY.

"With many OEMs producing fewer EVs and sales spiking over the last quarter as buyers take advantage of government incentives, we'll have to watch to see if this becomes a pronounced trend following the November elections," Aaron Johnson, CEO of Work Truck Solutions, said.

Potential for a Buyer's Market and Digital Embrace

"Although inventory is not back to pre-pandemic levels, we're seeing indicators that suggest a run toward a buyer's market is in the making. We can reasonably expect these trends to continue. Of course, all of this is subject to emerging local and international affairs, which impact trajectories," Johnson said.

"The way end-users shop has evolved into a highly digital affair and is certain to remain that way, so it is wise for commercial vehicle dealers and upfitters to embrace modern merchandising technology," Johnson said.