The Gasoline Crisis

What's being done about America's gasoline shortage? I'm told the people at Amoco Oil are making more gasoline than ever before.

Up 15-percent in the last two years. And that's millions of gallons.

But until there's enough, they're asking all of us to help.

So please, slow down. Instead of sixty, go fifty. And you can save a gallon of gas in every ten.

Let's see the shortage through... together. - Voice of Johnny Cash in television spot for Amoco Oil Company

 

No fleet administrator needs to look at television to know there is a gasoline shortage. He hears about it every day and comes face-to-face with it whenever he visits a filling station. Signs showing abbreviated operating hours and intermittent "dry" pumps are not as shocking as they once used to be.

Yet this shortage may be beginning to ease, just when it was supposed to be the worst, during the height of the summer driving season.

Of course, there's always a chance the shortage could get worse, but there are some very good reasons indicating that it won't. One reason for the easing of the shortage appears to be that people are driving less than they normally would, perhaps reacting favorably to all the publicity (like the kind beginning this article) to conserve gasoline.

But possibly the most important reason for the shortage easing is the Federal government's lifting of import bans on petroleum products. Crude oil from the Middle East is bringing domestic gasoline production to record levels, with refineries now running close to near capacity.

In fact, since the last week in May, when the American Petroleum Industry reported an all-time record for production of gasoline, refineries have been producing about 49 million barrels of gasoline a week. This record production has allowed refiners to build their stocks of gasoline from a low of 198.4 million barrels to a more respectable 203.4 million barrels. But stocks still are substantially lower by comparison to last year's 209.6 million barrels.

Figures for the first quarter of this year, in comparison to the same period last year, further emphasize the rising demand for gasoline. The rate of increase, once reported as a gluttonous jump of from 7 to 9-percent, seems to be currently at 4 to 6-percent.

The Big Question: Why?

Why did this gasoline shortage occur? Several reasons played an equally important role in bringing about the gasoline "crunch."

One is the skyrocketing demand for gasoline that began to outdistance refinery capacity and crude oil supplies. Four factors seemed to influence this huge demand:

1. New car sales were remaining at record highs. Detroit reported that, for the first quarter of 1973, car sales were nearly 20-percent higher than for the first three months of 1972.
2. More cars were equipped with gasoline-consuming options, especially air conditioning, which were taking part of the responsibility for new cars getting fewer miles per gallon than the older cars they were replacing.
3. Pollution-control devices on the new cars were drastically reducing mileage. According to the American Petroleum Institute, one government official estimated the increase demand for gasoline because of this factor at 300,000 barrels (or 12.5 million gallons) a day. And by 1980, this increased demand could reach two million barrels (or 84 million gallons) of gasoline each day.

4.      A sharp increase in gasoline-consuming recreational vehicles.

 

Besides the increase in demand, gasoline stocks were lower now than last year. And this is the other major reason for the gasoline "crunch." A high demand for fuel oil last year saw refineries altering their gasoline production schedules to manufacture fuel for homes, hospitals, business offices and plants. Producing this fuel oil hampered the stockpiling of enough gasoline for this summer. (Although gasoline is produced all year, it must be stockpiled in the winter - when people drive less - to have enough gasoline for the peak summer driving periods.)

Other reasons for the gasoline crisis are: the lack of crude oil or refining capacity in the United States to make enough gasoline and other petroleum products to satisfy the current rate of demand; and the amount of local zoning restrictions and environmental constraints that have also played a large part in stopping refinery expansion. Only three large new refineries have been built since 1969.

Until satisfactory volumes of gasoline are again available, a method has been voluntarily administered by the major gasoline companies to allocate petroleum products based on product orders during 1972. Since gasoline consumption is increasing at a large rate, however, service stations stay open for shorter periods of time and sometimes limit the amount of gasoline each automobile driver requests.

One way of increasing gasoline production to relieve spot shortages is to reduce the octane number on grades of gasoline. By lowering the octane rating, refineries are able to get more gasoline from each barrel of crude oil. This has already been done by one major oil manufacturer. Reduction in octane number rating in this one particular case would not affect 98-percent of the vehicles on the road. Only 2-percent of cars built before 1970 might experience difficulties that would require a switch to a higher octane number (or premium) gasoline.

The Gasoline Dilemma

Rather gloomy gasoline facts were presented by Harold C. MacDonald, vice president-Product Development Group, Ford Motor Company, in his explanation of the gasoline dilemma facing new car owners. Multiply these problems by the number of units in a fleet, and the headache is a big one.

While cars and trucks in this country consumed more than 92 billion gallons of fuel in 1970, best estimates indicate that by 1980, motor vehicles will be using more than 175 billion gallons of fuel annually. These figures are based on current consumption rates. Should fuel economy deteriorate further after implementing the emission control standards for 1976, consumption could increase to more than 198 billion gallons a year.

In fact, recent reports by the Consumers Union publication, Consumer Reports, warn 1973 luxury car owners to expect about seven miles to a gallon of gasoline. Standard size cars, according to Consumer Reports, give as little as eight miles to a gallon. Verifying these reports are fleet and taxicab owners who substantiate their dissatisfaction over fuel consumption of the 1973 cars, MacDonald commented.

Fuel Economy

Fuel economy is influenced by many factors. Weight increases certainly have had a telling effect on economy. So has the need for larger engines to compensate for deterioration in power.

An increased compression ratio improves both fuel economy and acceleration. But, on the contrary, U.S. passenger car average compression ratios have decreased from a high of 9.5 (last seen in 1969), to 9.4 (1970), 8.7 (1971), 8.4 (1972) and an estimated low of 8.2 for 1973.

Also affecting fuel economy are variations in the fuel itself, modifications in the driver's patterns, and emission control devices.

The Standard Size Car

Taking two of these factors, let us take a typical standard size car, and show what has happened to economy and performance as weight increases and emission controls become more-prominent.

In 1965 a typical new, standard size, 4-door sedan with optional small V-8 engine, automatic transmission, power steering and power brakes weighed about 3,550 pounds. In normal driving situations, a combination of city and suburban driving at varying speeds, the average driver could expect approximately 15 miles to the gallon. Careful drivers received even better mileage, since the performance available from their V-8 engines precluded the need to use wide-open throttle to obtain adequate acceleration.

Since the 1965 model, however, automobiles have had the dual effect of additional emission control device and a continual increase in car weigh.

In 1968 the model standard size car described earlier now has grown to approximately 3,750 pounds, or a 4.2-percent increase. Mileage ranges at about 14.5 miles per gallon, or off about three-percent. And performance - taking the acceleration from a standing point as an example-has fallen off eight-percent.

By the 1971 model year, the standard size sedan has grown to 4,150 pounds- including air conditioning- which, while not standard now, is being installed on a great majority of vehicles. This is the first year safety and damageability standards have contributed substantially to car weight, and also the first year engines have been modified to run on 91 octane gas. This, of course, necessitated a reduction in compression ratios and a corresponding decrease in horsepower.

Industry, responsive to all these factors, began to change the 300 cubic inch V-8 for the 350 as the standard power plant. This was done in an attempt to maintain performance levels for the standard size cars. And this move did keep performance on a par with the 1968 model, but mileage suffered. The 1971 model standard sedan with the bigger engine averaged less than 13 miles on a gallon of gas - a decrease in fuel economy of more than 15-percent from the 1965 car.

The one-two punch of stricter emission controls and additional weight-the new five mile- per-hour bumpers now in the picture - has had further adverse effects on gasoline economy and performance in the 1973 models.

Mileage tests indicated about 12 miles per gallon for the 1973 model standard size sedan weighing about 4,275 pounds, with emission control devices. Comparing this with the base 1965 car, acceleration has dropped almost 12-percent. Gas mileage has fallen off even more sharply - 21-percent.

For 1975, results are 11 miles to the gallon for the full size car. This represents a 26-percent decrease from 1965. Also, an 18-percent loss in performance is anticipated.

(Although we have been concentrating upon the weight of the standard size car, weight has a much more telling effect on the small cars than on the large ones as far as fuel mileage is concerned. Generally speaking, each additional 100 pounds of weight results in a 0.4 mile- per- gallon decrease in fuel mileage for subcompact cars, while a 100 pound increase reduces mileage in standard size cars by only 0.1 miles per gallon.)

And what does the future hold? Returning to Ford's MacDonald, he feels that despite engineering efforts to trim pounds, car weights will go still higher, and there is the probability that even larger base V-8 engines will be in use -engines in the neighborhood of 400 cubic inches.

How Catalytic Converters Affect Gas Mileage

Two catalytic test fleets of the Ford Motor Company have given initial indications of how gasoline mileage is changed due to catalytic converters.

Results from a 26 car fleet in Riverside, California showed an average loss in fuel economy of 3.9-percent compared to baseline 1973 survey vehicles. Another catalytic test fleet, this time a 12 car fleet being tested in Dearborn, showed an average loss of 8.7-percent.The combined fleet average resulted in a 6.3-percent decline from the 1973 survey vehicles.

General Motors, however, indicates that if catalysts are used to meet the interim 1975 standards set by the Environmental Protection Agency, fuel savings may be possible. General Motors President, Edward N. Cole, said that the catalysts "will take care of the emissions, permitting us to modify -and improve upon - some things we have done in the past to lower emissions. We can re-tune our engines to seek more energy out of each gallon of gasoline."

Cole indicated that if the original 1975 emission control standards remain in force for 1976, a second and different control system will be required to meet them. "Based on the technology available today, "he said, "that will almost certainly mean a loss of gasoline economy. . ."

Unleaded and Low-lead Gasolines

In preparing for the possibility of catalytic converters in cars, the oil companies are marketing unleaded (lower octane) gasolines that are recommended for almost all 1972 and 1973 model cars. According to a ruling by the Environmental Protection Agency, unleaded gasolines must be generally available throughout the United States by July 1, 1974. Low-lead gasolines are also available on the market. Low-lead gasoline contains about 1/2 gram of lead per gallon instead of 2-1/2 grams in regular. But to satisfy the EPA ruling, low-lead gasoline may become lead-free.

Lead-free gasoline offers drivers substantial savings in maintenance costs. Because there are no lead deposits, lead-free gasoline can double the useful life of a car's spark plugs, muffler and tail pipe.

Studies by General Motors show that lead-free gasoline reduces oil filter plugging and extends the life of the exhaust gas recirculation system on the 73 cars. The Amoco Oil Company reports that a motorist who drives his car for four years using only lead-free gasoline can expect to save the equivalent of four cents a gallon or more in maintenance costs.

Unleaded gasoline will receive as good mileage as leaded or low-leaded gasoline, according to several studies. But regardless of the gasoline used, later model cars, with their lower compression ratios and emission control systems, will show poorer fuel economy.

PH&H's "Fuel for the Fleet User"

Peterson, Howell & Heather, the Baltimore-based fleet leasing and management firm, published an editorial to its clients titled "Fuel for the Fleet User," indicating much the same analysis on the fuel shortages. PH&H stated that "there is every indication that there will be sufficient gasoline available to fuel all the cars on the road today, although it may be less convenient to get and undoubtedly more expensive to buy as time goes on." Later in the editorial PH&H comments on corporations considering using compact cars for business travel. The firm states that "companies provide cars to territory representatives to help them do a company job - a job that involves driver comfort and safety, larger trunk space requirements and higher than normal mileage. As before, we feel that any savings that might be attributable to smaller cars because of a temporary fuel problem would be highly illusory as far as corporate fleets are concerned. "

Premium versus Regular

Most fleet administrators are quick to admit that their fleets are instructed to use only regular gasoline. However, controls to make sure this policy is kept are hard to initiate. Many fleet drivers, irrespective of information to the contrary, still believe that higher powered engines require premium fuel. Some feel that increased mileage will be obtained by using a premium grade gasoline. This is not correct, says the American Petroleum Institute, which reports that premium grade gasoline does not mean increased mileage.

In fact, for the model year 1972 and 1973, no new cars were recommended to use premium (0-percent). For 1972, however, there were 27.1-percent cars on the road that required premium gasoline. Yet premium gasoline sales showed 38.1-percent.

For 1973, estimated figures show 24-percent of cars on the road require premium. Premium sales were still higher, however, at 35.1-percent.

One fleet administrator, in discussing premium fuel, indicated that soon there would be "little or no necessity for premium. . ." Another fleet operator indicated that in 1974, not one fleet in the country would have any need for premium fuel.

Car Manufacturers Gasoline Recommendations

Each car manufacturer's recommendations on gasoline is different, and therefore, is printed exactly as received-American Motors: All 1973 American Motors engines will operate efficiently with regular grade fuel. American Motors' engines will operate on low-lead or no-lead fuel. Chrysler Corporation: Chrysler recommends leaded or unleaded gasolines having a minimum octane number rating of 91 (Research Method) or an anti-knock index with a minimum numerical value of "2" on a Gasoline Classification Method. Ford Motor Company: Ford recommends gasoline with an octane rating of at least 91 as rated by the Research Method, or fuel with an anti-knock index symbol of at least "2" when engine is adjusted to factory-recommended specification. General Motors Corporation: General Motors recommends the use of unleaded or low-lead (0-0.5 grams per gallon) gasolines to minimize emissions of hydrocarbons and particulates. If unleaded or low-lead gasolines are not available, gasolines containing more than 0.5 grams per gallon may be used. In states using the Gasoline Performance and Information system of fuel designation, unleaded or low-lead fuels having an anti-knock designation of "2" are recommended.

How Accessories Affect Fuel Economy

In studying how fuel consumption stands with current engine and car designs, Chrysler Corporation released that size and weight account for 80 to 90-percent of the difference between a subcompact car with manual transmission and a luxury car with automatic transmission.

The study also indicated how four basic accessories affect fuel economy of an intermediate V-8 with automatic transmission.

	Urban Cycle	Open Highway/70MPH
Air Conditioning	1.5 mpg	0.1 mpg
Alternator	0.9 mpg	0.5 mpg
Fan	0.1 mpg	0.5 mpg
Power Steering	0.1 mpg	0.4 mpg

What should be noted here, is that, when the accessories are combined under urban driving, they affect mileage by 2.6 mpg - quite a large figure.

Although many drivers feel that gasoline is the single greatest outlay for automobile transportation, it is not. Instead it is the third highest cost among standard size cars (behind original vehicle cost depreciation and maintenance). For the compact and sub-compact cars, gasoline rates fourth, according to figures released by the U.S. Department of Transportation - Federal Highway Administration.

How are fleet administrators finding the gasoline crisis? One administrator said he had reports from the field in Oregon and Washington that men just barely made it home, because stations were out of gas. In New England, especially the smaller towns, out-of-state visitors are limited to five or ten gallons of gas. The out-of-state license plate identifies the "foreign" car, the driver who is then limited to the amount of gasoline purchased.

Conserving Gasoline

There are various ways fleet administrators and fleet drivers can conserve gasoline. First, make sure your automobile is tuned properly. Second, plan business trips carefully, making sure to avoid duplication and trying to have one trip suffice where before two trips may have been necessary. Avoid jack-rabbit starts and careless, fuel-consuming driving. And finally, make sure your tires are inflated properly. Some tires use more gasoline, but properly inflated tires (because of less rolling resistance), will increase tire life as well as increase gasoline mileage.