Oil market conditions are expected to ease through 2026 as global inventories build, and production continues to rise. Brent crude oil prices are forecast by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) to average about $62 per barrel in late 2025 and $52 per barrel in 2026, marking a significant retreat from recent highs. Non-OPEC+ countries lead production growth, while OPEC+ output gradually increases as earlier production cuts are unwound. 

In the United States, crude oil production is projected to remain near record levels, averaging 13.5 million barrels per day, supported by steady output from the Gulf of Mexico. These trends indicate a standstill in lower gasoline and diesel prices through 2026, although OPEC+ supply discipline could moderate the pace of decline. Even as global fuel demand continues to grow, efficiency improvements and slow economic expansion in China and Europe are limiting upward pressure on prices. The International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to rise modestly, about 1 million barrels per day annually through 2026, well below pre-pandemic growth rates. 

Projected U.S. Average Retail Fuel Prices (Dollars per Gallon)