Even as the whipsaw of changing tariff policy dominated the headlines, the dynamics of the April new-vehicle market unfolded as expected. 

New-vehicle sales saw momentum from late March and into April, before tapering off. New-vehicle inventory declined further, by 7.4% from March, according to the Cox Automotive analysis of vAuto Live Market View data released May 16.

May opened with a total supply of new vehicles on dealer lots across the U.S. at 2.49 million units, down 7.4% from the 2.69 million units at the start of April and down 10.5% from a year ago. Seasonal patterns persist, as it is not unusual to see sales rise during the traditional “spring bounce.” 

Inventory, however, is not being replenished at the same rate. Some automakers are likely holding the line on deliveries and production, as everyone struggles with the uncertainty surrounding the Trump Administration’s tariff policies.

Cox Automotive’s vAuto Live Market View days’ supply is based on the estimated retail sales pace for the most recent 30-day period. At the start of May, the new-vehicle days' supply was 66, down 16 days from last year and six days from last month. As automakers prepare to bring 2026 model-year vehicles to showrooms and introduce post-tariff-announcement pricing, inventory is expected to rise, but higher prices may further slow the pace of sales.

The 30-day sales pace peaked in mid-April but ended the month higher by less than 1%, as the market cooled notably in the final two weeks. The real urgency was in late March and early April. Still, that push faded as consumer sentiment stabilized after the rhythm of trade negotiation announcements became normalized, and consumers shifted to a more measured car-buying approach. The market may return to a more normal balance of “wait and see” and “buy now” attitudes. Year over year, the sales pace was up 10.8% at the end of April.

New-Vehicle Listing Prices Increase in April

This is a supply-side story, and there was clearly more demand and traffic in the showroom during March and April, selling down available vehicles. The increase in average listing price shows market-level dynamics had more of an impact on pricing than a change in invoice or manufacturer’s suggested retail price.

At the end of April, the average new vehicle listing price was $48,656, up $774 (1.6%) from the revised $47,882 at the start of the month and up $1,318 (2.8%) from a year earlier. However, the increases were not across the board, as some brands like BMW, Buick, Mitsubishi, and Dodge saw declines month over month. This reinforces the uneven distribution of impacts that the tariff uncertainty creates in the market. Among volume brands, RAM, Lincoln, and Cadillac saw the largest month-over-month increases in listing prices.

As reported earlier, according to Kelley Blue Book, a new vehicle's average transaction price (ATP) was $48,699 in April, up 2.5% month over month and up 1.1% year over year. New-vehicle sales incentives declined to 6.7% of ATP in April, down from 7% in March.

What to Expect in May and Beyond

Consumers are questioning what it means to be “made in America” and whether the preferred model or segment is more significant. Data indicates tariffs may raise costs for some vehicle models, but automakers remain uncertain how the added expense could inflate consumer pricing.

Ford is among the few brands that have announced higher pricing for specific vehicles made outside the U.S., while other brands develop their pricing strategies and promise to hold the line on current model-year products. This period presents a market share challenge; despite the potential shift towards a seller’s market, thorough consumer research can lead to unexpected purchasing decisions.