Cox Automotive forecasts a 16.7 million monthly selling rate in January, which would represent a relatively slow, but expected start to 2020.

Sales volume should total 1.11 million based on 25 selling days, which would be a 1% year-over-year decline.

This slow start is expected, as January is typically one of the slowest months for vehicle sales.

“Cold and cloudy weather mixed with a post-holiday shopping hangover usually results in little consumer interest and weak sales activity, and that’s what is forecasted for this January,” said Charlie Chesbrough, senior economist at Cox Automotive.

The overall vehicle sales pace is expected to trend lower in 2020, even as economic and consumer conditions remain strong.

Retail sales have been trending downward in recent years and that trend is expected to continue as the industry’s supply of gently-used off-lease vehicles continues to grow.

Fleet sales have grown in the last two years, according to Cox Automotive, and the strength in the fleet market has been helping to offset a declining retail market.

Continued growth in the fleet segment is uncertain, noted Cox Automotive.