Citing a saturated and shrinking German car market, new analysis by European automotive market research company Dataforce signals customer allegiance as a growing factor in determining a vehicle brand’s success.

According to Dataforce, “Dwindling loyalty is a particular challenge, leading to marketing and product level needing to become more targeted. The reality right now is every second person changes brands when buying a car.”

Examining three automotive brands — Romanian car manufacturer Dacia (part of the Renault group), Mercedes, and Japanese company Mazda Motor Corp — Dataforce first defined customer loyalty: “If a car buyer chooses the same brand again, they are loyal. If they switch to another brand, the clientele is deemed to have been conquered.”

Loyalty and conquests can be measured in absolute terms (customers retained or won in total) and relative to previous (loyalty) or current (conquests) new registrations of the brand, according to the Dataforce analysis.

In terms of relative loyalty during Q1 2023, Dacia registers first with 81%, followed by Mercedes with 70%, and Mazda with just under 65%. Measured in absolute terms, Mercedes is in first place with 9,340 loyal customers, while Dacia “only” has 2,327 loyal buyers, the Dataforce figures show.

Analysing customers who traded loyalty —Dataforce calls them “churns,” people who choose another brand when changing vehicles — Dacia, where loyalty is relatively high, recorded few churns. With a share of 5%, most switch to Renault, thus staying with the group, though 1.3% each of former Dacia customers opt for Skoda and VW. Of former Mercedes buyers who buy another brand, almost 10% buy from the VW group.

Examining which of the three brands captured new buyers Q1 2023, Dataforce analysts find of those who chose Dacia, 10% came from the VW brand and almost 9% from Renault customers — a positive balance of churn and conquest to these manufacturers.

By comparison, “Mercedes recruits some 9% of new registrations from former customers of the Wolfsburg group. On balance, therefore, the Stuttgart-based company is losing slightly,” Dataforce reports.

Mazda conquered customers from high-priced manufacturers, gaining a 6% share from VW, 3% each from BMW and Mercedes, and just under 3% for previous Audi buyers.

To effectively counteract churn and achieve conquests, Dataforce maintains, it is essential OEM brands “recognise trends and interrelationships as well as segment the buyer structure according to age, purchase modality and gender.”