The first quarter of 2023 saw a 16.8% increase in commercial vehicle registrations versus the first quarter of 2022, according to a new analysis by S&P Global Mobility. The data covers registrations for GVWR Classes 1 through 8. 

Compared to the percentage increase of 8.4% of overall new vehicles registrations in the U.S. over the same period, commercial vehicle registrations doubled. It’s worth noting that subsequent inventory challenges caused overall U.S. auto registrations to plunge in Q1 2022 compared to the previous year, along with tight supplies from chip and parts shortages.

Commercial Vehicle New Registration Class 1-8

Commercial Pickups, Cargo Vans Gain

Pickups and cargo vans saw the largest increase of any segment, with 26% and 30% respectively. For cargo vans in particular, the segment had been beset by extremely low output and high demand through the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic. High demand continues, though with loosening supply. 

Electric pickups and cargo vans also helped those percentages grow at an even faster pace: The Ford F-150 Lightning and Ford E-Transit, along with commercial sales of the Rivian R1T, hit the market in appreciably greater numbers than the first quarter of 2022, even though those numbers were hindered by plant shutdowns at both Ford and Rivian in Q1 2023. 

Ford is still targeting an annual production run rate for F-150 Lightning of 150,000 units by the end of 2023, Ford reiterated in its first quarter earnings call.  

Commercial Pickup Vehicle New Registration Class 1-8

The other big segment gainers were in lease/rental and lease/finance. Large commercial lessors and rental companies saw a 40% to 60% decrease in new registrations due to the pandemic, and this acceleration is making up for these losses. 

Prices Still Rising

The increases in commercial vehicle registrations, particularly for vans and heavy-duty pickups, come as prices continue to rise in these segments, indicating a still-robust demand environment — at least for right now.

Commercial Pickup Vehicle New Registration Class 1-8