Self-driving electrified vehicles will dominate U.S. roads in 13 years, while gasoline-powered vehicles will remain but represent only 5% of all consumer miles driven, according to a new report from RethinkX.
By 2030, self-driving cars, including "wheel optional" Level 5 fully autonomous cars, will represent 95% of all car miles driven, the San Francisco-based firm forecasts in "Rethinking Transportation 2020-2030: The Disruption of Transportation and the Collapse of the Internal-Combustion Vehicle and Oil Industries."
The report proposes a smartphone-like adoption curve with a more accelerated timeline compared to studies from Moody's and IHS Automotive that have forecast a more gradual timeline for adoption of self-driving cars through Transportation as a Service (TaaS).
The rapid adoption will result in savings of more than $5,600 per year to the average American family, which is equivalent to a wage increase of 10%.
The report envisions a world with much higher vehicle utilization rates and far less individual ownership. Cars would be owned by ride-hailing and other large fleets. Each car would be used at least 10 times more than individually owned vehicles, and a vehicle's consumer lifecycle would reach 500,000 miles. Costs for maintenance, energy, finance, and insurance would be significantly lower under the report's scenario.
Download the full report here.