The opinions and ideas expressed in this article are those of the author. They do not reflect the opinions or views of Automotive Fleet.

While election years can be exciting or stressful — sometimes a little of both — this year has been a ride.

Political violence, sudden changes in party leadership, and devastation from two hurricanes have contributed to the unique challenges of this election cycle. 

The Importance of Policy

Regardless of who wins, the U.S. is likely to see some changes. The proposed policies of presidential candidates can have a ripple effect that impacts businesses, especially those running fleets. Both foreign and domestic policy can affect anything from budgeting and labor to supply availability and profit margins.

While foreign policy is a main focus, both energy and economic policies also pose the most change from one administration to another. A closer look at each candidate's policies and understanding how they can affect fleets can help businesses anticipate, prepare for, and adapt to economic changes.

Breaking Down Harris's Record and Policies

The best way to determine what a candidate might do once in office is to consider past actions and stated policy positions. In her three and half years as vice president, Kamala Harris has made a record 33 tie-breaking votes. While most were nominations, two significant votes have implemented policies that affected consumers and business practices.

The American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 was implemented as a pandemic relief measure. The most memorable part of the bill is likely the stimulus checks sent to individuals, but it also included funding for states and tribal governments to support small business credit expansion programs that deliver loans or investments to eligible small businesses, specifically those owned by socially and economically disadvantaged individuals.

It extended existing programs, created new programs to support small businesses affected during the pandemic, and provided funding at the state and city levels.

Despite its name, The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 is geared more toward clean energy than inflation. When the bill was passed, its IRS funding became a contentious talking point.

Still, the bill also provided financial assistance to agricultural producers and rural small businesses for renewable energy systems and energy efficiency projects, created a new tax credit for qualified commercial clean vehicles that have a battery capacity of no less than 15-kWh that can be recharged, and provided incentives to replace eligible medium- and heavy-duty vehicles with zero-emission vehicles. As of 2024, electric vehicle models using components from China have become ineligible for these credits.

When it comes to foreign policy, the Biden-Harris administration kept Trump's trade tariffs in place, added some of their own, and spent upward of $45 billion in foreign aid. So what, if anything, would Harris do differently as commander in chief, and how might it affect fleets?

Economic Policy

Per her campaign site, Harris's economic plan includes, "Restoring two tax cuts designed to help middle class and working Americans: the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit." However, it should be noted that these credits are currently available. It also includes, "Enacting a billionaire minimum tax, quadrupling the tax on stock buybacks," and increasing "the tax rate on long-term capital gains for those earning a million dollars a year or more [to] 28 percent," actions that historically have caused job loss and lower wages due to the reduction in profit margins for businesses.

For fleets, this can mean increased operating costs, as low wages and job loss negatively impact the economy. For those that provide services considered luxury or noncritical (landscaping, pest control, and even some residential contractors), a drop in business may occur.

Energy Policy

When it comes to energy policy, Harris will "continue to support American leadership in [...] clean energy" and push on with the Inflation Reduction Act in her commitment "to continuing and building upon the United States' international climate leadership." There is no mention of drilling, fracking, or gas and oil in general within her policy stances.

Under Harris, fleets may see a continuation or strengthening of emissions regulations and may need to adjust or create alternative fuel vehicle acquisition plans. In a recent poll, 19% of fleets reported high up-front costs as a barrier to electric vehicle adoption, so keep an eye out for alternative fuel tax credits.

Foreign Policy

Harris's campaign page does not mention foreign aid or tariffs. However, it is stated that she will "stand with our allies" and "not tolerate unfair trade practices from China or any competitor that undermines American workers," indicating a commitment to both.

Should Harris continue with the Biden-Harris administration's funding of foreign conflicts, fleets can expect ongoing supply chain issues and inflated operating costs. Because there is no information on tariff changes, it is difficult to say whether imported goods prices would increase or decrease.

Breaking Down Trump's Record and Policies

Because Trump has already been President, the White House archives provide a list of past actions, of which we'll look at the same top three as Harris: economy, energy, and foreign policy.

On the economic side, the Trump administration passed the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, which cut not only consumer taxes but also business taxes and increased business deductions, which helped to add seven million new jobs, increase middle-class family incomes by nearly $6,000, and provide a 50-year low unemployment rate at 3.5%.

Although the initial pandemic lockdowns negatively impacted the economy, once "lockdowns ended, the economy [...] added back over 12 million jobs, more than half the jobs lost," and during "the third quarter of 2020, the economy grew at a rate of 33.1 percent."

Under Trump's administration, the U.S. became the net energy exporter for the first time in nearly 70 years, becoming "the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world," with natural gas production reaching a record high in 2019. This helped reduce the average family's utility cost by roughly $2,500 annually. "Renewable energy production and consumption both reached record highs in 2019," as did nuclear energy.

While no new wars started under Trump, his administration sent roughly $40 billion in foreign aid, and, as previously mentioned, he imposed trade tariffs on aluminum and steel. The administration also "negotiated more than 50 agreements with countries around the world to increase foreign market access and boost exports of American agriculture products, supporting more than 1 million American jobs."

Economic Policy

Trump's Agenda 47 whitepaper breaks down his policy plans. Regarding economic policy, his plan includes:

• Making the aforementioned Tax Cuts and Jobs Act permanent.

• Reducing wasteful government spending, which is a major cause of inflation.

• Reinstating the deregulation policies from his previous term.

He proposes to bring major manufacturing back to the U.S. to support job growth while bringing "critical supply chains back to the U.S., ensuring [...] economic stability."

For fleets, this plan could help reduce several — though not all — supply-chain issues when procuring replacement parts and vehicles and allow for increased business. It could also make hiring more competitive, which means adjusting the payroll budget to ensure you can attract top talent.

Energy Policy

Trump's energy policy is part of the backbone of his economic plan, as a reduction in energy prices affects everything from production and manufacturing to shipping, business costs, and consumer spending.

According to Agenda 47, Trump will reinstate the U.S. as "the number one producer of oil and natural gas in the world [...] by lifting restrictions on American energy production [...] from all sources." His plan includes streamlining permitting and ending "market-distorting restrictions on oil, natural gas, and coal," which can also help increase job opportunities.

For fleets, this could mean a loosening of emissions regulations that need to be met and an increase in business through reduced operational costs paired with consumer spending increases due to higher disposable income.

Foreign Policy

Agenda 47 outlines Trump's goal of seeking peace by strengthening alliances and ensuring ally countries "meet their obligations to invest in our common defense," which ties into the plan for reducing U.S. government spending.

Similar to Harris's plan to stand with allies, Trump plans to "stand with Israel, and seek peace in the Middle East [through rebuilding] our alliance network in the region." It should be noted that it is unclear if rebuilding these alliances equates to sending more foreign aid.

The agenda also includes championing "strong, sovereign, and independent nations in the Indo-Pacific [to improve] peace and commerce with others."

As with his last term, Trump will continue on the trade tariff train, supporting baseline tariffs on foreign goods and responding to unfair trading practices. This decision has received mixed reviews from within his party and a divide between economists.

Again, like Harris, fleets can expect supply chain issues and inflated operating costs if funding of foreign conflicts continues. Because Trump's stance on trade tariffs is similar to those in place during his first term, assessing operating costs — while accounting for inflation — from 2017-2020 can set a standard for what fleets might be able to expect should Trump return to office.

Cost and Operational Planning

Assessing historical operating costs can be an easier-said-than-done type of situation for fleets, who manually track data or use spreadsheets to keep tabs on spending.

Adopting fleet management technologies can help reduce data collection stress while saving time and ensuring clean data. Some technologies, like fleet optimization platforms, allow for integrating multiple fleet and business solutions onto a single platform for easy accessibility and more robust cost and operational insights.

Regardless of who makes it to the Oval Office, fleets should anticipate the need for some measure of cost control, whether due to inflation, lower business, or the necessity for increased payroll. The ultimate takeaway is to be ready and able to pivot and having a fleet technology that allows you to do so can prove a game changer.