The second quarter – especially April – will be the strongest part of the year for used vehicle sales and values, and then slow down but not crash.
The average listing price dipped again to $27,608, still off the December peak when it surpassed $28,000. But the average listing price was 28% above that of February 2021.
All major market segments saw seasonally adjusted prices that were higher year over year in the first half of March.
Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government buyers were down 30% year over year in February. Sales into rental were down 52% YOY.
The latest trends in the key indicators suggest wholesale used-vehicle values will likely see further declines in the second half of the month.
With record numbers of lease-holders choosing to keep instead of return their leased vehicles, the pool of available CPO-eligible inventory is lower than usual.
As was the case in each of the last prior months, much of the reported increase was a result of the seasonal adjustment.
Despite squeezed supply, the used-vehicle market has been playing a key role in the recovery of the automotive industry.
Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government buyers were down 32% year over year in December and down 4% full-year 2021 versus 2020.
Manheim Forecast: Tax refunds and a supply-constrained market will likely lead to another round of price increases in the first half of 2022
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