Automotive Fleet
MenuMENU
SearchSEARCH

Global Autonomous Vehicle Sales to Reach 33M by 2040

Automakers should be able to increase global sales of fully autonomous vehicles to 33 million by 2040 from 51,000 in 2021 — the first year of significant volume, according to a forecast from IHS Markit.

by Staff
January 3, 2018
Global Autonomous Vehicle Sales to Reach 33M by 2040

Photo of autonomous Chevrolet Volt courtesy of Cruise Automation.

2 min to read


Photo of autonomous Chevrolet Volt courtesy of Cruise Automation.

Automakers should be able to increase global sales of fully autonomous vehicles to 33 million by 2040 from 51,000 in 2021 — the first year of significant volume, according to a forecast from IHS Markit.

There should be 7.4 million autonomous vehicles operating in the U.S. in 2040, the forecast found.

Ad Loading...

This dynamic growth is expected to be enabled by ride hailing and other mobility services, according to the forecast. The U.S. will lead the world in early adoption and initial deployment of the vehicles, which could arrive as early as 2019. Europe and China are expected to add considerable volume starting in 2021.

"The first autonomous vehicle volumes — beyond retrofit test vehicles — will arrive in 2019 through driverless mobility services," said Egil Juliussen, director of automotive technology research at IHS Markit. "Volumes will surpass 51,000 units in 2021 when personally owned autonomous cars reach individual buyers for the first time, and IHS Markit forecasts estimate nearly 1 million units will be sold in 2025 across shared fleets and individually owned cars."

The units will be fully autonomous Level 4 or Level 5 vehicles based on the standard set by the Society of Automotive Engineers.

In the coming years, transportation will be driven by on-demand services rather than the individual ownership model and the industry will provide vehicles based on usage per distance or time rather than unit sales, according to the firm.

General Motors, Waymo, and Uber are expected to contribute significantly to mobility fleet volumes as early as 2019.

More Safety

Ambulance and damaged car at a crash scene on a rainy roadway, illustrating workplace transportation risks and the growing focus on road safety management for fleets.
SafetyJune 16, 2026

Managing Road Risk at Scale: Why Fleet Safety Needs a Data-Driven Framework

Insights from the FIA Road and Driver Safety Indexes reveal how to manage road risk on a larger scale.

Read More →
Close-up of a Jeep Wrangler front grille and headlight with text noting Stellantis’ recall of 1.3 million Jeep vehicles worldwide over a potential fire risk tied to power steering wiring.
Safetyby StaffJune 10, 2026

Stellantis Recalls 1.3 Million Jeep Vehicles Worldwide Over Fire Risk

Stellantis is recalling more than 1.3 million Jeep Wrangler and Gladiator models worldwide over a fire risk linked to power steering pump wiring.

Read More →
Road signs pointing to “Safe” and “Risky” beside a glowing AI network graphic, illustrating the role of artificial intelligence in driver safety, coaching, training, and risk management.
SafetyJune 10, 2026

Coaching Is Not Training, Even When AI Is Doing It

AI-powered safety platforms can detect risky behaviors and deliver immediate feedback. But effective driver development still requires a foundation of training followed by coaching that reinforces those skills.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Driver resting in a vehicle seat, illustrating the dangers of fatigue and the importance of driver wellness, rest, and alertness for safe fleet and roadway operations.
Safetyby Judie NuskeyJune 9, 2026

How Emotions Behind the Wheel Can Affect Fleet Safety

During National Safety Month, fleets are encouraged to look beyond distracted driving and recognize how stress, fatigue, and emotional well-being influence driver performance and crash risk.

Read More →
A blue and red Automotive Fleet graphic calling for nominations for the fleet safety award.
Safetyby Faith HowellJune 4, 2026

Nominations Open for 2026 Fleet Safety Award

Nominations have officially opened for the 2026 Fleet Safety Award Winner.

Read More →
wheel geotab image
SponsoredJune 1, 2026

Turning Connected Vehicle Data Into Decisions That Matter

Fleet leaders have more data than ever, but turning that data into clear, actionable decisions remains a challenge. This white paper shows how leading organizations are using connected vehicle data to improve safety, reduce costs, and optimize fleet performance. Learn how to turn insight into action across your fleet.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
A person holding a clipboard and writing on an inspection checklist beside the wheel of a large white vehicle, likely conducting a fleet or safety inspection.
SponsoredJune 1, 2026

Cameras, Safety and Insurance: From Reactive Claims to Real-time Prevention

Commercial auto remains one of the most challenging and costly lines of coverage for fleet operators and insurers alike. Learn more about how to effectively address these issues from Onur Aksan, Enterprise Business Development Executive, Geotab.

Read More →
A Fleet Forward Conference graphic representing the safety symposium.
Safetyby Chris BrownMay 29, 2026

NAFA Fleet Safety Symposium to Collocate With 2026 Fleet Forward Conference

The daylong certificate program will precede the Fleet Forward Conference at the Gaylord National Harbor in Maryland.

Read More →
A person with hands on the steering wheel driving
Safetyby Judie NuskeyMay 15, 2026

The Distractions You Can’t Turn Off: What Drivers Face Outside the Vehicle

Fleet drivers face constant visual, cognitive, and environmental interruptions the moment they hit the road. From roadside chaos to mental fatigue and digital overload, today’s biggest driving risks often come from outside the vehicle itself.

Read More →
Ad Loading...
Hail covers the windshield and hood of a black vehicle with text overlay about FLASH Weather AI’s new hail prediction model.
Safetyby News/Media ReleaseMay 13, 2026

FLASH Weather AI Launches First Deep-Learning Hail Prediction Model With High-Resolution Forecasting

FLASH Weather AI has launched a first-of-its-kind hail prediction model capable of forecasting hail size and arrival time at 1-kilometer resolution up to 55 minutes ahead, giving fleets and insurers critical time to prepare for severe storms.

Read More →