Global Autonomous Vehicle Sales to Reach 33M by 2040
Automakers should be able to increase global sales of fully autonomous vehicles to 33 million by 2040 from 51,000 in 2021 — the first year of significant volume, according to a forecast from IHS Markit.

Photo of autonomous Chevrolet Volt courtesy of Cruise Automation.

Photo of autonomous Chevrolet Volt courtesy of Cruise Automation.
Automakers should be able to increase global sales of fully autonomous vehicles to 33 million by 2040 from 51,000 in 2021 — the first year of significant volume, according to a forecast from IHS Markit.
There should be 7.4 million autonomous vehicles operating in the U.S. in 2040, the forecast found.
This dynamic growth is expected to be enabled by ride hailing and other mobility services, according to the forecast. The U.S. will lead the world in early adoption and initial deployment of the vehicles, which could arrive as early as 2019. Europe and China are expected to add considerable volume starting in 2021.
"The first autonomous vehicle volumes — beyond retrofit test vehicles — will arrive in 2019 through driverless mobility services," said Egil Juliussen, director of automotive technology research at IHS Markit. "Volumes will surpass 51,000 units in 2021 when personally owned autonomous cars reach individual buyers for the first time, and IHS Markit forecasts estimate nearly 1 million units will be sold in 2025 across shared fleets and individually owned cars."
The units will be fully autonomous Level 4 or Level 5 vehicles based on the standard set by the Society of Automotive Engineers.
In the coming years, transportation will be driven by on-demand services rather than the individual ownership model and the industry will provide vehicles based on usage per distance or time rather than unit sales, according to the firm.
General Motors, Waymo, and Uber are expected to contribute significantly to mobility fleet volumes as early as 2019.
More Safety

The Safest Fleets Aren’t the Ones with the Most Technology
You’ve made the telematics investment. Here’s how to capture the other half of its value and build the safest fleet on the road.
Read More →
Hidden in Plain Sight: Fleet Compliance Risks
Fleet compliance isn't just about having policies — it's about consistently enforcing them. This practical guide reveals six hidden compliance risks common in public sector and shared fleet operations and outlines proven strategies to improve visibility, accountability, and audit readiness
Read More →
NETS Sets 2026 Fleet Safety Benchmark Conference for Indianapolis
The Sept. 15–17 program will feature fleet benchmarking data, case studies, emerging technologies, and implementation strategies while running alongside the NSC Safety Congress & Expo.
Read More →
Off-the-Job Crashes Account for 43% of Employers’ $61.7 Billion Crash Burden
NETS quantifies costs dispersed across fleet, risk, HR, and other departments while providing new per-crash benchmarks for employers.
Read More →
Ram Recalls More Than 1.27 Million 1500 Pickups for Seat Belt Anchor Issue
The recall affects certain 2019-2026 Ram 1500 pickups that may have improperly attached second-row seat belt buckle anchors.
Read More →How Better Visibility Cut Speeding Violations by 48%
Fleet leaders don't need more data, they need clearer visibility into what the data is saying. This case study explores how one utility replaced speeding-event counts with a single metric — miles driven in violation — to strengthen safety and significantly reduce speeding violations.
Read More →
Operation Safe Driver Week: Why the Industry's Oldest Safety Campaign Still Matters to Fleets
A look at how a 2007 enforcement initiative became one of the most consequential weeks on the fleet safety calendar, and what it means for your drivers in 2026.
Read More →
Nexar-Nauto Merger Aims to Give Fleets Better Safety Intelligence Through Larger Driving Dataset
Stefan Heck tells Automotive Fleet that combining more than 10 billion miles of driving history with Nexar's AI models will give fleets deeper insights into driver risk and roadway conditions than either company could provide independently.
Read More →From Silos to Solutions: Relationship Management for Safer Fleets
From telematics adoption and driver accountability to policy consistency and risk mitigation, this episode breaks down what it really takes to build a safer fleet culture without slowing business down.
Read More →
IIHS Launches First Commercial Vehicle Safety Evaluations
The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety has begun evaluating heavy-duty pickups and cargo vans for driver protection. Which models earned top marks?
Read More →
