Diesel, Gasoline Prices Forecast to Remain Low into Next Year
Expectations for diesel and gasoline prices for next year have been revised lower, according to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook issued this week by the U.S. Energy Department.
Expectations for diesel and gasoline prices for next year have been revised lower, according to the latest Short Term Energy Outlook issued this week by the U.S. Energy Department.
The average retail price of diesel, which averaged $3.83 per gallon in 2014, is projected to average $2.71 in 2015 but forecast to be slightly less in 2016 at $2.67. This is a penny less for this year, when compared to last month’s forecast, and 3 cents less for next year.
This compares to a U.S. average this week of $2.379 per gallon, the lowest weekly average since June 2009.
In the first quarter of 2016, diesel is forecast to average $2.49 per gallon, increasing in the second quarter to $2.67 and topping out at $2.75 in the third and fourth quarters. The final two quarters of 2016 are estimated to be just slightly above actual or projected price levels for this year, but will still be well below all quarters in 2014.
Consumption of distillate fuel, which includes diesel fuel and heating oil, is forecast to fall by 0.9% this year, but increase by 1% in 2016, due to a hike in manufacturing output, foreign trade and marine fuel use.
Meantime, the average price of regular grade gasoline is expected to average $2.43 per gallon for 2015, the same as in last month’s report. In 2016 it's expected to be at $2.36, up 3 cents from the November forecast.
This week the average national price of gasoline came in at $2.053 per gallon, with some analysts expecting it to fall below the $2 mark before the year is out.
The monthly average price of U.S. regular gasoline was $2.15 per gallon in November, a decrease of 13 cents from October and 75 cents lower than in November 2014. DOE forecasts U.S. regular gasoline retail prices to average $2.04 in December 2015.
These prices compare to a national average of $3.51 per gallon in 2013 and $3.36 during 2014.
Total U.S. liquid fuels consumption is projected to increase by 1.5% in 2015, higher than the 0.8% increase in 2014, stimulated by continuing employment and economic growth and lower petroleum product prices, according to the report. Total liquid fuels consumption growth in 2016 is forecast to increase 0.8%.
This increase in demand has been outweighed by less demand from other nations, especially China. When combined with increased worldwide oil output, the lower demand has led to a glut of crude oil and deeply lower prices, all of which has translated into lower pump prices for fuel.
DOE expects crude prices to average between a wide margin of $30 to $63 per barrel, meaning there is a lot of uncertainty in the marketplace. Crude was trading for just over $37 per barrel in New York as of mid-day on Wednesday.
The good news for fans of lower fuel prices is that prices aren’t expected to spike next year, even if oil is at the upper end of its forecast window.
More Fuel
Turning Fleet Payment Data into Executive Insights
Ramel Lindsay of U.S. Bank Voyager discusses how fleets can transform payment and transaction data into actionable intelligence to reduce costs, improve oversight, and support executive decision-making.
Read More →
Why the IRS Raised Its Mileage Rate in the Middle of 2026
Fuel-price volatility drove the rare increase to 76 cents per mile, the fifth midyear adjustment since 2000.
Read More →
July Fuel Update: Prices Keep Rising in Light of More Conflict
Gas prices continue to rise as more and more conflicts do, too.
Read More →
Bob Adamsky on Fuel Volatility: "Don't Panic, Have a Plan."
When it comes to up and down fuel prices, Adamsky has a message for fleets: “Don’t panic.”
Read More →
How Fleets Can Gain Control of Non-Fuel Spend
Fuel often gets the spotlight, but non-fuel expenses can have a major impact on fleet costs. Ramel Lindsay of U.S. Bank Voyager discusses how fleets can gain better visibility and control over these often-overlooked expenditures.
Read More →
Fuel is Just the Start: How Middle East Tensions are Driving Up Fleet Maintenance Costs
The Middle East conflict is doing more than pushing up fuel prices. It’s also raising the cost of key maintenance products your fleet depends on, from motor oil to tires to windshield wipers. Here’s what you need to know about this budget-busting situation.
Read More →
June Fuel Update: Prices Fall Below $4
Drivers are finally getting some relief at the pump. The national average gas price has dropped below $4 a gallon for the first time in months, with prices falling in 47 states as oil markets react to developments in U.S.-Iran negotiations.
Read More →
Study: How 2026's Gas Price Hikes Affect Different Vehicle Types
New data from iSeeCars reveals how rising fuel costs have affected different vehicle segments as gasoline prices climbed nearly 46% over the past four months.
Read More →
Are You Tracking Your Fleet's True Total Cost of Ownership?
Bobit Business Media surveyed 190 fleet professionals and found that while most fleets are tracking costs, fragmented systems and data gaps are keeping true TCO visibility out of reach. With rising pressure to control spend in an increasingly volatile environment, the gap between what fleets think they know and what the data actually shows is wider than you might expect. See how your peers are managing costs today and where the industry still has room to improve.
Read More →
May Fuel Update: All Regions Experience Declines
Gas prices are finally easing in much of the country, but experts warn global tensions could quickly reverse the trend as the national average remains well above last month’s levels.
Read More →