The future growth potential for the car rental industry as a whole looks bright according to Time Magazine Travel Manager Sandy Gilbert, who predicts competition between the major firms in the 1980s will be fiercer than ever.

Gilbert, who spoke before the annual Travel Research Association Convention in Scottsdale, Arizona, based his prediction on data collected in a study of 2,300 customers of five major rental companies.

He reported that the demographic profile of today's typical car renter as predominantly male (93-percent), married (81-percent), college-educated and between the ages of 25 and 54. Two-thirds hold middle or top manage­ment positions, 62-percent reported household incomes of $25,000 or more and 77-percent gave business travel as the reason for renting a car.

Although the study showed that renters try different companies during the course of the year, there appears to be a high degree of loyalty as most renters use one or two companies considerably more often than the others, Gilbert indicated. "For example, only 17-percent of those who rent a car for both business and pleasure do not rent from the same company on both occasions. In those instances where a different company was used on vacation, 63-percent switched companies because of a specially priced vacation package," he said.

"Of course, the major issue that confronts us all today is, where do we go from here? What will the car rental mar­ket be like in the mid '80s? Will business travel continue to be the major motivating force to rent a car? Will the demo­graphic profile of the car renter remain as highly selective as it is today? Will more or fewer people rent cars?" Gilbert asked.

A 15-percent increase in the country's population by 1990 will have some effect on the industry, Gilbert asserts, but while this new segment of the population will be too young to rent cars, the figures take into account the shift in the relative size of different age groups. The thirty to forty-five age group is expected to increase 60-percent by 1990. Taking into consideration that this age group already ac­counts for more than half of all the rentals, the growth potential is impressive, Gilbert said.

"The participation of women in the labor force is ex­pected to continue to increase. Multi-worker households and a larger share of the total population in the labor force should increase the potential for car rentals for business reasons," Gilbert said. In addition, "per capita and house­hold income, always a major determinant in the future of any industry, are expected to increase by more than 50-percent in real dollar terms between now and 1990. The rise in per capita income and shifts within the population will combine to make for smaller households with larger amounts of discretionary income and time. The result will be an increasingly mobile population with the life-style and means to travel widely."

Although newer cars are being made smaller and less powerful in order to conserve energy, Gilbert doesn't see the importance of the auto declining in the 1980s.

"With gasoline having long since passed the dollar a gallon barrier [in the '80s] and cars being smaller in size-limiting occupancy and storage space, the long distance car trip will be a thing of the past," Gilbert said. "The Probability of lower air fares will further contribute to the rise of the fly/drive concept for business and personal trips over 200 miles."

Since in the 1980s cars will be built within the con­straints of size and economy, Gilbert sees the vehicles becoming standardized in appearance and performance. "Since the range of cars will be limited to mostly smaller economy cars, pricing will also decline as a definitive marketing tool. If every firm has only three models to rent, it will be increasingly difficult to use price as a way to attract more business. Virtually every car will be the equivalent of today's $13.95 compact."

Gilbert suggests that the business will be won or lost on a company's ability to offer quick, reliable customer serv­ice. This will be difficult for competition, since computer­ization of advance reservations and check-in and -out pro­cedures may standardize this area. "As marketers, you will need to continue to upgrade the quality and training of sales personnel. Your employees, particularly at the rental counters, will be one of your major marketing tools. Their appearance, demeanor and knowledge of the local environs will be more important than ever before."

Gilbert concluded, "Whatever direction the market ul­timately takes in the '80s, one thing is for sure . . . the changes in the population, the economy, and the automo­bile itself will mean that whether you are number one, two or twenty-two, you will all be trying harder to provide a more mobile, sophisticated consumer with quick, reliable customer service. Such service probably always has been the name of the game, but it certainly will be in the 1980s."