The trend of increased PM costs per service will continue as more and more vehicles requiring conventional oil are taken out of service and replaced with models that require synthetics. 

“We expect cost per mile to increase over 2019-2020 as the economy improves with both labor and materials increases to exceed inflation,” said Chad Christensen, strategic consultant at Element Fleet Management.

The cost of lubricants is another maintenance expense that is expected to increase.

“Lubricant prices tend to follow the crude oil market. The crude oil market has experienced a recent drop due to the COVID-19 pandemic and decreased demand. As the economy slowly recovers in the year ahead, any price increases will probably be small and then grow gradually over time,” said Ryan Gardner, corporate business development manager for Enterprise Fleet Management. 

One concern is that the economic recovery from the pandemic may take longer than anticipated. “We forecast costs will continue to rise. As the demand  lessens, the cost will increase. Even if a vaccine is in place, there is still hesitation in returning to business as usual. Some analysts predict another year before some industries turn around,” said Troy Fleener, team lead, maintenance for Emkay.