If you want to understand today you have to research yesterday.-Pearl Buck

When we think of the past, we forget the fools and remember the sages. We reverse the process for our own time.-George Boas

If three people say you are an ass, put on a bridle.-Spanish Proverb

Fleet managers are people. People have an inalienable right to change their minds. But a consistent change of opinion calls for careful examination and the reasons for it.

Take a moment to study the two charts belowthat are factual statistics covering the actual purchase/registration track record for fleets as reported by domestic makers and the two largest lessors over a period of the last four years. The "factory" chart indicates that during this period there really has not been as dramatic a change in purchases as some would have you believe. The luxury- and standard-size cars lost a few points to the intermediate and compact segments.

In reviewing the lessor chart (which includes "sports models" within the various group headings) there has actually been a notable drop in intermediates and a very strong increase in the compact segment. One might surmise that these lessors primarily service larger fleets and these results may not correspond with the thousands of smaller fleets buying. Perhaps.

Another dichotomy exists in the National Assn. of Fleet Administrator's Annual New Car Buying Survey conducted early each fall on their members' buying intentions. These managers should possess a nearly precise idea as to what will be purchased since they have studied the makers' new product entries, reviewed their lessor recommendations (if they have one), and intimately know their fall model selector list on elegibility for driver selection. In the fall of 1979 NAFA's study reported intent to buy 52 percent compacts and subcompacts. The '79 registration figures for fleet show that 38.5 percent were purchased from these two segments.

Comparing the following year (NAFA's '80 fall survey vs. actual model year registrations) we fire that the fleet managers expected to buy 50 percent compacts (actually they bought 24.9 percent) and 35 percent intermediates (really bought 25.1 percent).

Similarly in the fall of '81 NAFA respondents predicted that they would buy 68.5 percent compacts and 27 percent mid-size cars. Registrations show that the entire fleet market bought 28.4 percent compacts and 25.8 percent intermediates during the following model year.

It is true that "mid-size" may not mean "intermediate" to all fleet buyers and everyone's reporting may not be exactly on the same basis; and, just maybe, some people may change their mind. But with all the hoopla about continued downsizing, NAFA's study last fall predicting that 70 percent of '83 fleet purchases will be compact, and the knowledge that there is an actual trend towards more luxury, standard, and intermediate fleet buying, I don't think Detroit will be concentrating entirely on compact sales.

DOMESTIC REGISTRATIONS -

FLEET PERCENT OF TOTAL (Model Year)

'79

'80

'81

'82

Luxury

Standard

Intermediate

Compact

Sub-Compact

Sports

19.2

25.4

20.1

19.5

9.2

9.1

16.4

20.7

22.2

24.6

13.9

7.8

15.7

20.0

25.1

24.9

9.9

8.8

16.2

20.9

25.8

28.4

11.7

9.7

GELCO & PH&H MODEL YEAR PURCHASES

(Combined Average)

'79

'80

'81

'82

Luxury

Standard

Intermediate

Compact

Sub-Compact

3.4

9.0

47.3

26.8

5.5

3.0

7.2

45.4

38.3

6.5

2.7

4.5

34.5

44.1

6.3

1.7

5.5

32.0

53.9

6.3