Though commercial vehicle inventory is rising, prices for both new work trucks and vans are increasing as well, according to Work Truck Solution’s Q1, 2023 Commercial Vehicle Market Analysis. 

Commercial Vehicle Inventory Rising

With Ford leading the charge among OEMs, new on-lot inventory per dealer continued to grow: +10.8% Quarter over Quarter (QoQ) and +46.4% Year over Year (YoY).

With new inventory levels still only 46.3% of what they were in 2019, used vehicles continued to help fill the demand, as evidenced by the rise in used on-lot inventory per dealer, up 125.4% YoY.

Prices Rising on Trucks & Vans

Average used vehicle prices continued their modest decline: down 1.7% QoQ and 4.3% YoY.

However, continuing the trend we’ve seen since Q2 2022, both new work trucks and vans still carry a significant price tag with prices increasing 2.4% QoQ and 4.1% YoY.

Within new vehicle averages, Empty Cargo Vans by themselves showed no signs of stagnation with prices rising: 

• 5.0% QoQ and 5.8% YoY for light-duty work vans, and

• 1.6% QoQ and 7.8% YoY for medium-duty vans. 

• The prices of Service Trucks also continued their upward trend with:

• Light duty is up 1.9% QoQ, and 6.9% YoY, and

• Medium duty is up 1.5% QoQ and 6.0% YoY.

The median mileage of used work trucks and vans maintained its upward arc, with increases of 6.3% QoQ and 11.6% YoY.

Although the combination of higher mileage and more available new vehicles is influencing the decrease in used-vehicle prices, unmet demand is slowing that decrease. 

There is a slight increase in days-to-turn that shows both new and used inventory staying on dealer lots longer, a trend we’ll keep a close eye on in the coming months.

Replacement Cycling Strong

“An interesting note in this data is that even with higher new-vehicle prices, searches for new trucks and vans remained strong, demonstrating that customers are still dependent on replacing, and adding, vehicles for their businesses,” said Aaron Johnson, CEO of Work Truck Solutions. “On the other side of the equation is an uncertain economy, inflation, and rising interest rates.”

Commercial Vehicle Definitions

• Empty Cargo Van: a van with an open cargo area that can be configured with shelves, storage areas, etc. as needed for specific vocational use cases.

• Service Truck: an open-bed truck with lockable compartments on the outer edges used for tool and equipment storage.

• Light/Medium Duty: this designation refers to the vehicle’s gross vehicle weight rating and may also factor in the gross trailer weight rating. Medium-duty vehicles have higher ratings/capacities than light-duty vehicles.