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The Cox Automotive Insights team looks at key industry trends ahead that overall point to a healthy year.
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Analysis: A big drop of 20% to 30%, as one report suggests, is highly unlikely. History tells us a decline of more than 10% is rare indeed.
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Manheim Forecast: Tax refunds and a supply-constrained market will likely lead to another round of price increases in the first half of 2022
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During the first 15 days of December, the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index hit 239.8, a 49% increase from December 2020.
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Available inventory edged slightly higher but remain below normal.
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Wholesale prices appear to have peaked the week before Thanksgiving as weekly prices have declined slightly in each of the last two weeks. But retail prices continue to increase.
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The average listing price of about $27,000 is running 25% above year-ago levels and 38% over pre-pandemic 2019 levels.
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October figures show buyers are much more aggressive in purchasing than is typically the case in the fall. Combined sales into large rental, commercial, and government buyers were down 24% year-over-year in October.
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The Pipeline Market Report is the industry's first information tool driven solely by independent auction sale data, encompassing near real time results from 175+ partner operations.
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But days’ supply climbed to 43 in September, the highest it has been in months, on higher inventory and slower sales.
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