No Truck Powertrain Type to Dominate by 2050
S&P Mobility projects that no single fuel or powertrain type will account for the majority of sales in medium-duty (Classes 4-7) and heavy-duty (Class 8) trucks over the next 25 years.
Most fuel and powertrain types that exist today will still gain a significant share of sales.
Source: Automotive Fleet
By 2030, over one in four new passenger cars sold will be an electric vehicle. But the same can't be said about trucks, according to S&P Mobility.
According to data from S&P Mobility, no single fuel or powertrain type will account for the majority of sales in medium-duty (Classes 4-7) and heavy-duty (Class 8) trucks by 2050.
In Classes 4-7, S&P Mobility projects that BEVs will account for about 37% of total sales, followed by FCEVs at about 22%. HEV at 18%, diesel at 16%, and gas at 7%.
Source: S&P Mobility, data compiled Oct. 2023
Battery-electric trucks (BEV) will have a plurality of sales in the medium- and heavy-duty segments. However, six fuel and powertrain types — diesel, gasoline, compressed/liquid natural gas (CNG/LNG), hybrid-electric (HEV), fuel-cell electric (FCEV), and hydrogen/internal combustion engines (H2-ICE) — will maintain significant percentages of sales.
Growth Driven by Regulations
In the midterm, electrification growth will be primarily driven by the regulatory environment, with subsequent sales driven by lower costs for zero-emissions vehicles (BEV, FCEV, and H2-ICE) compared to gas- and diesel-fueled vehicles, according to S&P Mobility.
In Classes 4-7, S&P Mobility projects that BEVs will account for about 37% of total sales, followed by FCEVs at about 22%. HEV at 18%, diesel at 16%, and gas at 7%.
Source: S&P Mobility, data compiled Oct. 2023
More Fleet Forward
Erin Gilchrist Receives Mike Antich Spirit of Fleet Award
Last week at AFLA in Vegas, Erin Gilchrist received the inaugural, brand-new Spirit of Fleet Award.
Read More →
Dominika Leja Named the 2026 Fleet Manager of the Year
The AstraZeneca associate director of fleet was recognized for her leadership in fleet electrification, cost savings, and operational transformation.
Read More →
Jamie McKay Named the 2026 Fleet Visionary Award Winner
The Aptive Pest Control fleet manager was recognized for her approach to operations, data, lifecycle management, and driver needs.
Read More →
Fleet Forward Conference Introduces One-Day Passes for 2026
New one-day registration gives fleet professionals the flexibility to attend Tuesday, Wednesday, or Thursday, with passes available for $199 through Sept. 18.
Read More →
Vibe Coding: When Fleet Managers Become Software Builders
Five fleet professionals — none with programming skills — discuss how they’re using AI to build fleet solutions in-house and in a fraction of the time.
Read More →
Fleet Forward Conference Tackles Fleet Industry’s Growing Leadership Gap
This session will examine succession planning, knowledge transfer, and the skills the next generation of fleet leaders will need as veteran professionals leave the industry.
Read More →
2026 Fleet Manager of the Year Finalists Announced
Who are the 2026 Fleet Manager of the Year finalists?
Read More →
John Rossant to Deliver Opening Keynote at 2026 Fleet Forward Conference
The CoMotion founder will draw on developments across Europe, China, the Middle East, and other international markets to identify trends that could influence how U.S. fleets plan for the coming decade.
Read More →
How to Build Custom Fleet Tools With AI and Vibe Coding [Webinar]
A new Automotive Fleet webinar explores how fleet managers are using AI and vibe coding to automate routine work and create simple operational tools without traditional programming skills.
Read More →
Is Fleet Ready for Its New Disruptors?
Three emerging leaders from a corporate fleet, public fleet, and the automotive supply chain will bring new ideas and a willingness to challenge industry norms to the Fleet Forward Conference stage.
Read More →