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SEARCHS&P Mobility projects that no single fuel or powertrain type will account for the majority of sales in medium-duty (Classes 4-7) and heavy-duty (Class 8) trucks over the next 25 years.
Most fuel and powertrain types that exist today will still gain a significant share of sales.
Source: Automotive Fleet
By 2030, over one in four new passenger cars sold will be an electric vehicle. But the same can't be said about trucks, according to S&P Mobility.
According to data from S&P Mobility, no single fuel or powertrain type will account for the majority of sales in medium-duty (Classes 4-7) and heavy-duty (Class 8) trucks by 2050.
In Classes 4-7, S&P Mobility projects that BEVs will account for about 37% of total sales, followed by FCEVs at about 22%. HEV at 18%, diesel at 16%, and gas at 7%.
Source: S&P Mobility, data compiled Oct. 2023
Battery-electric trucks (BEV) will have a plurality of sales in the medium- and heavy-duty segments. However, six fuel and powertrain types — diesel, gasoline, compressed/liquid natural gas (CNG/LNG), hybrid-electric (HEV), fuel-cell electric (FCEV), and hydrogen/internal combustion engines (H2-ICE) — will maintain significant percentages of sales.
In the midterm, electrification growth will be primarily driven by the regulatory environment, with subsequent sales driven by lower costs for zero-emissions vehicles (BEV, FCEV, and H2-ICE) compared to gas- and diesel-fueled vehicles, according to S&P Mobility.
In Classes 4-7, S&P Mobility projects that BEVs will account for about 37% of total sales, followed by FCEVs at about 22%. HEV at 18%, diesel at 16%, and gas at 7%.
Source: S&P Mobility, data compiled Oct. 2023
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