Many of us may be too "mature" and jaded in our business world to attempt a New Year's resolution but there is a need and good reason to begin the New Year with solid optimism. My suggestion is that we work around the negatives of 1980 and with the negative, but perhaps realistic, predictions of the $20,000 car, 20 percent inflation, 25 percent prime rate and gasoline at $1.50 a gallon. As sobering as these thoughts are, let's make a conscious effort to believe in the positives; and there are plenty in full view.
First of all, having survived the past year, we simply have to be better business people than before. Coping with the difficult makes us stronger and wiser; and just maybe we are working a bit harder and longer to make it work.
The ever-buoyant GM Chairman, Thomas A Murphy, predicted in December that we should sell nearly 11 million new cars in 81'. Significantly, most others have predicted a 10 million new car year over the 9 million sold in 1980. For the record, in the past Murphy has forecasted with uncanny accuracy, but it should be noted that he will not be around at the end of the year for comparisons (he's retiring). In any event it does bode well.
Beginning this month we also have a new team in Washington, both in the white house and in Congress. This translates into new department and cabinet heads that presumably will be following the promised sanctity of conservative government and realistic mandates from those offices.
There are numerous signs on the plus side of the ledger. AMC has been awarded an easier California Nox standard decree and can now market their entire line in that state. At this writing EPA is about to reverse itself on its recent decision on GM's J-cars providing a waiver on the carbon monoxide standard. It appears that the light truck emission standards, about to go into effect on a much more stringent basis, will be delayed at least another year.
We may finally hear the last of the air bag with its $800 to $ 1200 price tag. Knowledgeable people have grown to accept the well-engineered three point belt and it is a fair compromise. There is good reason to believe that Joan Claybrook of the Suspect NHTSA and the other Joan Claybrooks in Washington will be able to rejoin the Ralph Naders of the world.
Lessons and fleet managers are finally beginning to demonstrate to management that is costly and the company pays a premium to run the fleet cars forever. Maintenance and downtime is not only expensive but it is costly in the morale department.
Added optimism is being generated from new products. We have seen and driven the J-cars and are as impressed at the fleet buyers. We've seen the photos of the '82 F-cars (Camaro and Firebird) in a buff magazine and they are stunning. We have seen the artist's sketches of GM's P-car ('83 two passenger commuter), their all-new B-car (also '83), their '84 E-car ('84's Riviera, Tornado, Eldorado), their '84 S-car (two-plus-two commuter), their '83 Vette (Y-car) and their '85 X- van and they bring a strong feeling of excitement and confidence to the future.
So, for 1981, let us be resolute in the realization that we are fortunate to live and work in one of the world's most richly endowed nations. We do have the ingenuity to create the optimum business atmosphere for the world's most richly endowed nations. We do have the ingenuity to create the optimum business atmosphere for the world's most advanced consumer society. Let's get at it.
