No Truck Powertrain Type to Dominate by 2050
S&P Mobility projects that no single fuel or powertrain type will account for the majority of sales in medium-duty (Classes 4-7) and heavy-duty (Class 8) trucks over the next 25 years.

Most fuel and powertrain types that exist today will still gain a significant share of sales.
Source: Automotive Fleet
By 2030, over one in four new passenger cars sold will be an electric vehicle. But the same can't be said about trucks, according to S&P Mobility.
According to data from S&P Mobility, no single fuel or powertrain type will account for the majority of sales in medium-duty (Classes 4-7) and heavy-duty (Class 8) trucks by 2050.

In Classes 4-7, S&P Mobility projects that BEVs will account for about 37% of total sales, followed by FCEVs at about 22%. HEV at 18%, diesel at 16%, and gas at 7%.
Source: S&P Mobility, data compiled Oct. 2023
Battery-electric trucks (BEV) will have a plurality of sales in the medium- and heavy-duty segments. However, six fuel and powertrain types — diesel, gasoline, compressed/liquid natural gas (CNG/LNG), hybrid-electric (HEV), fuel-cell electric (FCEV), and hydrogen/internal combustion engines (H2-ICE) — will maintain significant percentages of sales.
Growth Driven by Regulations
In the midterm, electrification growth will be primarily driven by the regulatory environment, with subsequent sales driven by lower costs for zero-emissions vehicles (BEV, FCEV, and H2-ICE) compared to gas- and diesel-fueled vehicles, according to S&P Mobility.

In Classes 4-7, S&P Mobility projects that BEVs will account for about 37% of total sales, followed by FCEVs at about 22%. HEV at 18%, diesel at 16%, and gas at 7%.
Source: S&P Mobility, data compiled Oct. 2023
More Fleet Forward

What Fleets Want: FFC Panel to Examine the Future of the Fleet-OEM Relationship
Fleet and OEM leaders will tackle how connected vehicles, embedded telematics, and data are changing the relationship between commercial fleets and automakers.
Read More →
2026 Fleet Manager of the Year Finalists Announced
Who are the 2026 Fleet Manager of the Year finalists?
Read More →
John Rossant to Deliver Opening Keynote at 2026 Fleet Forward Conference
The CoMotion founder will draw on developments across Europe, China, the Middle East, and other international markets to identify trends that could influence how U.S. fleets plan for the coming decade.
Read More →How to Build Custom Fleet Tools With AI and Vibe Coding [Webinar]
A new Automotive Fleet webinar explores how fleet managers are using AI and vibe coding to automate routine work and create simple operational tools without traditional programming skills.
Read More →
Is Fleet Ready for Its New Disruptors?
Three emerging leaders from a corporate fleet, public fleet, and the automotive supply chain will bring new ideas and a willingness to challenge industry norms to the Fleet Forward Conference stage.
Read More →
NAFA Announces 2026 Fleet Safety Symposium Education Program
Register for NAFA’s Fleet Safety Symposium and save $200 on your Fleet Forward Conference registration.
Read More →
Fleet Managers Take the Lead in Hands-On AI Workshop at FFC
The fleet manager-led session will show how to use “vibe coding” to build practical fleet tools without a traditional programming background.
Read More →
NETS Crash-Cost Data and CoolSys’ 80% Loss Reduction Take Center Stage at FFC
NETS will present findings from its latest Cost of Crashes research, then CoolSys safety leader and author Shawn Martinez will explain how the company built a safer driving culture across 3,500 employees.
Read More →
Is Your Grey Fleet Creating an Unmanaged Safety Risk?
NCR Atleos Fleet Manager Jose Rocha will join Cardata and SambaSafety experts at Fleet Forward Conference to examine how fleets can extend safety oversight to every employee who drives for business.
Read More →
Agentic AI Session at FFC Will Help Fleets Turn Data Into TCO Action
Mike Albert Fleet Solutions and Motorq will show how agentic AI can uncover maintenance, fuel, and utilization savings buried across disconnected fleet data.
Read More →