Chris Brown ofAutomotive Fleetconnects with Zo Rahim, senior manager of economic and industry insights at Cox Automotive, about the outlook for the wholesale vehicle market in 2026. While headline expectations point to a flat market, Rahim explains that stability doesn’t mean stagnation, as key shifts in supply and demand are already underway.
A major theme for 2026 is the changing composition of wholesale supply. Off-lease volumes are expected to rise meaningfully—bringing more newer-model vehicles into the market—while dealer participation in wholesale channels may soften as acquisition strategies evolve. Despite this shift, Rahim emphasizes that overall volumes remain balanced, avoiding the kind of oversupply that could disrupt pricing.
Rahim also highlights the growing role of EVs in the wholesale and used vehicle markets, with a significant increase in off-lease EVs expected in 2026 and beyond. Combined with steady consumer demand and improving product mix, this should help stabilize EV residual values. While macroeconomic factors like tariffs and consumer health remain variables, the overall outlook points to a stable, predictable market environment.
🧭 Key Takeaways:
Wholesale volumes expected to remain flat in 2026, signaling a stable market
Manheim Index normalizing after post-pandemic volatility
Off-lease supply rising, adding more late-model vehicles to the market
No oversupply concerns—inventory growth remains balanced
Tariff uncertainty drove pull-ahead fleet demand in 2025
EV off-lease volume set to grow significantly, with an improving residual outlook
Macroeconomic conditions remain the biggest risk factor for the year ahead