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Black Book Says Pickup Trucks and Full Size CUVs Will See Strong Retention Values During Next 12 to 24 Months

July 23, 2013

Black Book’s Lender Solutions division analyzed historic vehicle segment data to develop retention level projections for the next 12 to 24 months. Key projections for this period include strong retention values for trucks in the Compact, Mid-Size, and Full-Size Pickup categories, which have had strong values during the last 12 months, according to Black Book.

Next, Full-Size CUVs, examples of which include the GMC Acadia, Buick Enclave, Ford Flex, and Cadillac SRX, will outperform average retention levels, according to Black Book, as buyers are replacing Full-Size SUVs with vehicles from this segment that is low in supply and a less competitive segment than SUVs.

In terms of categories that Black Book predicts won’t do well during the next 12 – 24 months, the company projects that Entry-Level Cars and Minivans will underperform compared to average retention levels. Vehicles in the Entry-Level Car segment include Chevrolet Aveo, Honda Fit, Toyota Yaris, and Hyundai Accent. Black Book said that greater fuel efficiency in the Mid-Size segments means customers are more interested in that category, and for Minivans, the popularity of crossover segments is also pulling away interest.

The Premium Sporty Car segment is one that Black Book projects will see average retention levels over the next 12 to 24 months.

The chart below shows average retention values during the last 12 months and projected retention values during the next 12 to 24 months.

SegmentAverage of past 12 month retentionAverage of 12m retentionAverage of 24m retention
Full-Size Pickup95.22%80.47%68.85%
Mid-Size Pickup94.97%81.55%70.13%
Compact Pickup94.78%81.73%71.09%
Full-Size Van Cargo90.97%76.07%62.52%
Compact SUV90.83%79.88%67.73%
Full-Size Vans Wagon (Pass)90.31%77.30%63.63%
Full-Size SUV88.52%79.19%65.66%
Mini Van Cargo87.95%78.65%64.31%
Mid-Size SUV87.76%80.49%66.61%
Luxury SUV86.87%80.56%67.28%
Sporty Car86.31%80.85%68.50%
Compact CUV85.76%81.05%67.86%
Mid-Size CUV85.37%80.38%67.47%
Luxury Level Car85.22%80.21%66.48%
Premium Sporty Car85.06%82.08%69.28%
Near Luxury Car84.10%80.03%66.63%
Full-Size Car84.01%81.04%68.41%
Prestige Luxury Car83.31%79.90%65.74%
Mini Van Wagon (Pass)83.22%78.04%63.90%
Full-Size CUV82.95%82.60%69.47%
Upper Mid-Size Car81.95%80.90%67.71%
Entry Level Car81.23%77.91%64.75%
Compact Car80.86%80.62%67.62%
Entry Mid-Size Car78.22%80.02%66.36%
Grand Total85.90%80.25%67.19%
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