Ed Bobit's Publisher's Page

Words (and statistics) are seductive and dangerous material to be used- with caution.-Barbara Tuchman

When we think of the past we forget the fools and remember the sages. We reverse the process for our own time.-George Boas

We are confronted with insurmountable opportunities.-Pogo

Any analysis must be carefully studied, equitably judged, and based totally on factual data available from the most reliable sources. The old adage that "figures lie" and "liars figure" is one an analyst attempts to avoid in the evaluation process, since there are real reasons that influence purchases and perceptions. And therein lies the rub.

Without fear of contradiction it can be said that the light truck (Classes I and II — under 10,000 GVW) market is booming. Numbers recorded elsewhere in this issue demonstrate that light trucks have hit a four-year high in new registrations so far in 1983 and are bound to continue strong, not only for the rest of this year but throughout 1984.

The casual observer might be led to believe that the light truck market is easy to "lump together" based on the assumption that those units under 10,000 GVW are pretty much the same and not nearly as "speced-out" with optional equipment as are the big-rig over-the-road haulers. Not quite true at all.

A lot of ink has flowed regarding the mini or compact-truck market where in 1981 the captive and non-captive imports accounted for 88 percent of the market. In '82, with the entry of the S-10, S-15, and the late-in-the-year availability of the Ranger (coupled with the phasing out of the Luv and Courier), the imports' share dropped to 53 percent, although outselling the domestics. This year with business up, the imports are more than holding their own at the retail level and with significant gains in fleet penetration.

The real number in both retail and fleet usage comes from those units over the 4,500 GVW compact segment. Here we find the van market continuing strong. The T-115 is sure to cannibalize some of the light truck market as we know it. This holds true for the other new and soon-to-be-new vans come a year from now. The "specialty" segment covering a wide range of entries continues to grow. Our local police department uses 4x4s to patrol the beach, testimony to unique fleet usage.

Still, at the heart of the market are the work-horse one-half-ton, three-quarter-ton and one-ton pickups. That's where heavier loads and tougher applications exist, commanding the use of rugged vehicles. Some of our readers control solely a car fleet. Rest assured that those who are responsible for both cars and light trucks find a stronger and almost compelling challenge in managing light trucks.