Sales of light-duty plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in North America are expected to total nearly 7.4 million from 2015 to 2024, according to Navigant Research.
Navigant's report, "Electric Vehicle Geographic Forecasts," found that North America is currently the world’s largest market for PHEVs, with more than 133,000 sold in 2014, and the majority of vehicles concentrated in California.
The U.S. is predicted to be the largest market throughout the forecast period, with annual PHEV sales in 2024 exceeding 860,000 in the conservative scenario and 1.2 million in the aggressive, according to the report. Annual sales in Canada, which is about one year behind the U.S. in terms of vehicle availability, are expected to reach over 74,000 PHEVs in the conservative scenario and over 91,000 in the aggressive by 2024.
To date, PHEV sales have been concentrated in areas where lucrative government incentives have been offered for both drivers and vehicle manufacturers, according to the report.
Currently, PHEV sales are concentrated in California, where the vehicles already account for over 3 percent of the state’s total light-duty vehicle market. State incentives, alongside the mandates of California's zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) program, will likely continue to push PHEV penetrations in the state to between 15 percent and 22 percent by 2024, the report said. Other states participating in the ZEV program are expected to see similar growth.
Outside of the ZEV states, PHEV sales will grow most quickly in states with large vehicle markets, high PHEV incentives, well-developed infrastructure, and a high PHEV index, the report added.
Navigant's report provides data and forecasts for PHEV sales in North America, including U.S. states, metropolitan statistical areas, and utility service territories and Canadian provinces and cities.
An executive summary of the report is available for free download on the Navigant Research website.