Black Book’s Lender Solutions division analyzed historic vehicle segment data to develop retention level projections for the next 12 to 24 months. Key projections for this period include strong retention values for trucks in the Compact, Mid-Size, and Full-Size Pickup categories, which have had strong values during the last 12 months, according to Black Book.
Next, Full-Size CUVs, examples of which include the GMC Acadia, Buick Enclave, Ford Flex, and Cadillac SRX, will outperform average retention levels, according to Black Book, as buyers are replacing Full-Size SUVs with vehicles from this segment that is low in supply and a less competitive segment than SUVs.
In terms of categories that Black Book predicts won’t do well during the next 12 – 24 months, the company projects that Entry-Level Cars and Minivans will underperform compared to average retention levels. Vehicles in the Entry-Level Car segment include Chevrolet Aveo, Honda Fit, Toyota Yaris, and Hyundai Accent. Black Book said that greater fuel efficiency in the Mid-Size segments means customers are more interested in that category, and for Minivans, the popularity of crossover segments is also pulling away interest.
The Premium Sporty Car segment is one that Black Book projects will see average retention levels over the next 12 to 24 months.
The chart below shows average retention values during the last 12 months and projected retention values during the next 12 to 24 months.
|Segment||Average of past 12 month retention||Average of 12m retention||Average of 24m retention|
|Full-Size Van Cargo||90.97%||76.07%||62.52%|
|Full-Size Vans Wagon (Pass)||90.31%||77.30%||63.63%|
|Mini Van Cargo||87.95%||78.65%||64.31%|
|Luxury Level Car||85.22%||80.21%||66.48%|
|Premium Sporty Car||85.06%||82.08%||69.28%|
|Near Luxury Car||84.10%||80.03%||66.63%|
|Prestige Luxury Car||83.31%||79.90%||65.74%|
|Mini Van Wagon (Pass)||83.22%||78.04%||63.90%|
|Upper Mid-Size Car||81.95%||80.90%||67.71%|
|Entry Level Car||81.23%||77.91%||64.75%|
|Entry Mid-Size Car||78.22%||80.02%||66.36%|