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Mobility Changes to Transportation to Accelerate in 2040

November 16, 2017

The emergence of ride hailing, autonomous vehicles, electrified vehicles, and other mobility trends should bring greater changes to transportation networks in the U.S., Europe, and China by 2040, according to a new report from IHS Markit.

In 23 years, vehicle miles traveled will reach an all-time high of around 11 billion per year, a 65% increase from 2017. At the same time, sales growth of new light-duty vehicles should slow substantially, according to the forecast.

The findings came in Reinventing the Wheel, a new scenario-based research initiative that analyzes the world's largest automotive markets.

"The shift is just beginning," said Daniel Yergin, IHS Markit vice chairman and project chairman. "By 2040, the changes in transportation will be accelerating in a way that will be visible on roads and highways around the world. The pace and degree of this dynamic shift will have significant implications for industry, for public transportation systems and for how people get to work and live their lives — and spend their money on transport."

The mobility as a service industry, as the survey is calling it, is expected to purchase 10 million cars in 2040 compared to 300,000 in 2017.

Sales of vehicles with internal combustion engines (ICE) are expected to retreat, according to the study. ICE vehicles would still make up a majority of new vehicle sales in 2040 due to sales of mild to full hybrids. Vehicles powered solely by gasoline or diesel will have fallen below 50% of new vehicles sold by 2031.

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